Can Covid-19 be removed by injection? When will the pandemic end?
Chris Whitty, the UK’s chief medical officer, once told the media that the likelihood of eliminating Covid 19 Lowin permanently “would not change as it is close to zero”.
“The only disease we were able to eradicate forever was smallpox. It could have been done with a vaccine that worked miraculously for a very long time.” Professor Chris Witty added.
But that does not mean that the vaccine is useless. Vaccination of half the population may increase the spread of the virus and lead to the development of new strains of the virus.
An analysis by Christopher Murray of the University of Washington and Peter Piot of the London Institute of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine warns that the Covid vaccine needs to be accelerated worldwide.
“Outbreaks appear to be exacerbated during seasonal periodontal disease. Their article in the Journal of the American Medical Association states. They recommend that these vaccination programs be launched at a high global rate as a first step in controlling Covid-19.
The primary goal of the Covid vaccine is to save lives, provide immunity, and prevent the spread of the virus, said Professor Azra Ghani, head of the epidemiology department at Imperial College London.
She added that “one year after the virus was identified, progress has been made in developing a vaccine and distributing it.”
Scientific knowledge about this new virus is gradually expanding, and scientists around the world are actively testing and improving vaccines against this virus.
“So we can be optimistic. Although the virus cannot be eradicated forever, I believe that these efforts will provide direct and indirect protection for the return to normal life.” The professor said.
Is the vaccine effective for new strains?
New strains of the virus are expected to emerge. Each virus undergoes changes in its duplication for its survival and spread. This will create new varieties.
Most varieties are not so harmful. But at some point, a very strong variation can occur. Examples are varieties found in the United Kingdom, Brazil, and South Africa.
There is still no evidence that these strains make the disease more deadly. Many experts are of the opinion that existing vaccines may be effective in the short term.
However, concerns have been raised about the risk of variants that do not comply with existing vaccines if Covid-19 is allowed to spread worldwide without testing. If so, even people who are currently vaccinated could get sick again.
In such a case, experts say, the existing vaccine could be redeveloped in a few weeks or months to adapt to the new variant.
If so, people will have to get new vaccines for new strains every year. Vaccines are usually given this way for the common cold.
What is the hesitation about vaccination?
“Vaccine hesitation” will also have a major impact on vaccination around the world.
In some rich countries, vaccination is not uncommon, but it is hampered by public misunderstandings.
For example, a recent poll in Japan and France found that about half of the population in those countries is reluctant to be vaccinated.
Germany and Italy, which are experiencing the third wave, suspended the AstraZeneca vaccine a few weeks later and asked the World Health Organization to issue a statement on its safety.
This ambiguity in developed countries can also arise in poor countries. Such doubts are more likely to arise, especially when the delivery of the vaccine is delayed.
In some countries – especially those with a young population – if the disease is highly prevalent (because the majority of the population is immunocompromised) or if the cost is too high, there will not be much demand for the vaccine.
Agathe Demarais, forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit, said that “global vaccination will be delayed until late 2022 and 2023, and the risk will increase as some developing countries may refuse vaccination.”
“If that happens, the recovery of the world economy will be further delayed, new strains of the virus will become resistant to vaccines and we will be back to where we were before.”
If many people refuse to be vaccinated, experts say, it could have a devastating effect on the best chance of ending the epidemic.
‘Herd immunity’ can only be reached after a significant proportion of the population develops antibodies that can fight the disease. This is usually done by injection. Then the rest of the population will be protected as the disease does not spread through that group.
This varies from disease to disease. For example, 95% of the population should be vaccinated against measles. But polio vaccination is needed for 80% of the population.
Since Covid-19 is the latest threat, it is not yet known what percentage of the population needs to be immune to it. But epidemiologists believe it could be as high as 70%.
However, as the epidemic approaches its second year, experts are on high alert to push up this percentage.
Anthony Fauci, Chief Medical Adviser to US President Biden, acknowledged that estimates of that value were steadily rising over time, and believed it could be between 70% and 90%.